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MARYBLYT Study for Potential Spread and Prediction of Future Infection Risk of Fire Blight on Blossom of Singo Pear in Korea
Res. Plant Dis. 2018;24:182-192
Published online September 30, 2018
© 2018 The Korean Society of Plant Pathology.

Min-Sun Kim and Sung-Chul Yun*

Department of Pharmaceutical Engineering and Biotechnology, Sunmoon University, Asan 31460, Korea
Tel: +82-41-530-2282
Fax: +82-41-530-2393
E-mail: scyun@sunmoon.ac.kr
ORCID
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6295-8642
Received June 1, 2018; Revised June 21, 2018; Accepted June 23, 2018.
cc This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Abstract
Since fire blight (Erwinia amylovora) firstly broke out at mid-Korea in 2015, it is necessary to investigate potential spread of the invasive pathogen. To speculate environmental factors of fireblight epidemic based on disease triangle, a fire blight predicting program, MARYBLYT, was run with the measured meteorological data in 2014-2017 and the projecting future data under RCP8.5 scenario for 2020-2100. After calculating blossom period of Singo pear from phenology, MARYBLYT was run for blossom blight during the blossom period. MARYBLYT warned “Infection” blossom blight in 2014-15 at Anseong and Cheonan as well as Pyungtak and Asan. In addition, it warned “Infection” in 2016-17 at Naju. More than 80% of Korean areas were covered “Infection” or “High”, therefore Korea was suitable for fire blight recently. Blossom blight for 2020-2100 was predicted to be highly fluctuate depending on the year. For 80 years of the future, 20 years were serious with “Infection” covered more than 50% of areas in Korea, whereas 8 years were not serious covered less than 10%. By comparisons between 50% and 10% of the year, temperature and amount of precipitation were significantly different. The results of this study are informative for policy makers to manage the alien pathogen.
Keywords : Erwinia amylovora, Infection warning, Oriental pear, Phenology of blossom period, RCP8.5 scenario


September 2018, 24 (3)